Nvidia investors are bracing for Wednesday’s earnings report, which will reveal the first concrete financial impact of U.S. export restrictions that CEO Jensen Huang says have cost the company $15 billion in potential Chinese sales. The Trump administration’s decision last month to block Nvidia’s H20 chip—specifically designed for the Chinese market—has already resulted in a projected $5.5 billion in charges, raising questions about the company’s ability to maintain its extraordinary growth trajectory.
The stakes are particularly high given China accounted for 13% of Nvidia’s revenue last year, and Huang recently estimated the market for AI chips in China could reach approximately $50 billion next year. Analysts from Susquehanna calculate that the restrictions impacted just the final three weeks of the April quarter but still cost Nvidia about $1 billion in sales. Looking ahead, they project the lost revenue could amount to as much as $4.5 billion per quarter for the remainder of the year.
While the company is reportedly developing a new AI chipset for China based on its latest Blackwell architecture, uncertainty surrounding its China business has contributed to a 2% decline in Nvidia’s stock this year—a sharp contrast to its nearly three-fold gain in 2023. “The primary question around results and guidance is can Nvidia lift sales enough to offset the loss of H20 or China business,” Wedbush analysts noted ahead of the earnings report, as investors seek clarity on whether new opportunities in regions like the Middle East can compensate for the substantial Chinese market the company has been forced to abandon.