Israel is launching a diplomatic offensive, capitalizing on current regional instability to pursue normalization with Syria and Lebanon. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced on Monday that Israel sees an opportunity with Iran perceived as weakened after the recent 12-day war, and amid the turmoil unleashed by the Gaza conflict and Assad’s overthrow.
However, a core condition of Israel’s offensive is the non-negotiable status of the Golan Heights, annexed in 1981 after its 1967 capture from Syria. This immediately conflicts with Syria’s claim to the territory, which is largely supported by the international community despite President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty.
This diplomatic initiative builds on the success of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which formalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Yet, these agreements faced considerable unpopularity across the Arab world, underscoring the deep public sentiment tied to the Palestinian issue, which could complicate future normalization efforts.
Indeed, a senior Syrian official has firmly linked any normalization to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, countered that conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood is “not constructive” and a security threat, exposing a fundamental ideological divide that poses a major hurdle to Israel’s diplomatic offensive.