Ryanair has adjusted its projected passenger numbers for fiscal year 2027, decreasing the target from 216 million to 214 million. This revision comes as the airline scales back its winter capacity to mitigate the impact of soaring unhedged jet-fuel costs. Current jet fuel prices are hovering around $140 per barrel, and Ryanair has indicated that if these high prices persist, European short-haul airfare could rise significantly. The airline anticipates that passenger traffic from November through March will remain largely unchanged compared to the previous year, as it strategically manages capacity during the typically weaker winter months.
To shield itself from fluctuating fuel costs, Ryanair has hedged approximately 80% of its fuel needs for fiscal 2027 at an average of $67 per barrel, effective until March 2027. This hedging strategy offers some protection against current price spikes. By reducing its winter capacity, Ryanair expects to cut its seasonal losses by €70 million to €100 million. In line with its capacity reduction plan, the airline has withdrawn five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and reduced its Brussels schedule by about two million seats for both the winter of 2026 and the summer of 2027. The airline cautioned that competitors with less fuel price protection might face more severe financial challenges if oil prices remain elevated.
Despite the less optimistic winter forecast, Ryanair remains confident about its summer performance, projecting a traffic increase of over 5%. In August alone, the airline saw passenger numbers rise by 6% year-on-year, reaching 22.2 million, while maintaining a load factor of 96%. During the same month, Ryanair operated more than 120,500 flights, although over 400 flights were cancelled due to eruptions from Mount Etna.
Looking ahead, Ryanair anticipates that its profit after tax for fiscal 2027 will fall short of the record levels achieved in the previous financial year. However, the airline stated that it is still too early to provide precise profit guidance. As Ryanair navigates the challenges posed by high fuel prices and capacity adjustments, it continues to monitor market conditions closely while adapting its operational strategies accordingly.